06/22/2013 | 08:33 PM
There were 23 grand slam tournaments since 2008
Australian Open. In the draws of 20 of these 23 slams: Roger got the
tougher (higher-ranked) opponent in his semifinal draws while Nadal
mostly got the easier opponent. This made it harder for Roger to reach
slam finals (but easier for Nadal to reach finals feeling fresh). Since
2008, every Wimbledon, US Open, Australian semifinal draw has been bad
for Roger. See Michael9's posts in comments section of this article:
http://tinyurl.com/k8z29of
http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/esp/news-detail/news/4434-wimbledon-die-auslosung.html
Michael9
http://tinyurl.com/k8z29of
http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/esp/news-detail/news/4434-wimbledon-die-auslosung.html
The
likelihood of such skewed draws affecting one player is incredibly
remote. Is it a statistical anomaly that Federer got the tougher
semifinal draws while Nadal got the easier draws in 20 of the last 23
draws? An academic (probably a Djokovic fan) did an analysis which
suggested it was statistically impossible for Federer and Djokovic to be
drawn together so often (see links). But it was really Federer who had
the overwhelming number of worst semifinal draws and the pattern started
in 2008. Here's a conspiracy theory: are the Grand Slams (especially
AO, W, USO) somehow able to manipulate the draws of the top eight seeds
(the top two seeds are fixed)? If so, have the Grand Slams been helping
Nadal (and/or lately Djokovic) get to finals and/or trying to pressure
Federer for being a powerful ATP Player Council president an/or for some
other reason? If that's not the case, then it is an incredible
statistical anomaly, indeed.
http://tinyurl.com/cjqe3rh
http://tinyurl.com/bn7rsqu
In 2011 ESPN analyzed the U.S. Open draw from a different angle. Dr. Andrew Swift, past chairman of the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Sport and an assistant mathematics professor, evaluated the process, data and findings. He concluded: "Any way you want to look at these, there is significant evidence here that these did not come from a random draw," he said.http://tinyurl.com/k73jvpn
http://tinyurl.com/cjqe3rh
http://tinyurl.com/bn7rsqu
In 2011 ESPN analyzed the U.S. Open draw from a different angle. Dr. Andrew Swift, past chairman of the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Sport and an assistant mathematics professor, evaluated the process, data and findings. He concluded: "Any way you want to look at these, there is significant evidence here that these did not come from a random draw," he said.http://tinyurl.com/k73jvpn
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20130621/wimbledon-mens-seed-report/?sct=tn_t11_a4
Since 2008 Australian Open there have been 23 grand slam tournaments (6 AO, 6 FO, 6W, 5 USO) in the past 5.75 seasons.
In the vast majority of those slams, Federer has gotten the worst of the three possible semifinal opponents (which has been a dis-advantage in Federer getting to more finals during this period). On the other hand, Nadal has gotten the easier semifinal draw in the vast majority of these slams (which has been an advantage that helps Nadal get to more finals).
Federer's semifinal draws as well as actual semifinal matches had the tougher opponents much more than Nadal got. This made it harder for Roger to reach more finals as well as be in fresh shape in the finals (e.g., 2011 French Open: Federer stopped Djokovic's 43-game winning streak in the semifinal but then faced a fresh Nadal in the final).
Semifinal draws on paper: In 20 of these 23 slams since 2008 AO , Federer got the semifinal draw with the tougher semifinal opponent. These 20 draws were in every Australian Open (6), every Wimbledon (6), every US Open (5) and half of the French Open (6).
- Djokovic was the semifinal draw in 16 of those 23 draws (except 7 draws: 2008 FO, 2010 FO, 2012 AO, 2012 USO, 2013 AO, 2013 FO, 2013 Wimby)
- Murray in 4 semifinal draws (2010 FO, 2012 USO, 2013 AO, 2013 Wimby)
- Nadal in 1 semifinal draw (2012 AO; and this Wimby quarterfinal draw)
- Ferrer in 1 semifinal draw (2013 FO; Federer lost early)
- Davydenko in 1 semifinal draw (2008 FO; Russian lost early).
- Federer drew the fourth seed in only three draws: 2008 FO (Davydenko), 2010 FO (Murray), 2013 French Open (Ferrer)
In the vast majority of these 23 slams, Djokovic was a tougher and more dangerous threat than Murray. The Serb was more consistent in reaching the semifinals: from 2008 AO to 2013 FO, Djokovic reached 16 of 22 semifinals compared to Murray's 12 of 22 semifinals. Djokovic was also the more dangerous threat in the slams to Nadal/FedererDjokovic: since 2008 AO, Nadal's H2H against Murray was a dominant 11-5 but Nadal was closer 13-12 against Djokovic. Already in 2008, Djokovic had twice beaten Nadal and even took a set off Nadal on clay in 2008 Hamburg.]
In 4 of the last 5 slams, the 'Nadal factor' and 'Murray factor' went against or did not benefit Federer: (a) 2012 Wimbledon: when Nadal lost early, it was Murray who benefited since Federer already had Djokovic in his semifinal draw; (b) 2012 US Open: when Nadal was absent, Federer got Andy Murray in his semifinal draw (and a hot Berdych in the quarterfinals); (c) 2013 Australian Open: when Nadal was absent, Federer again got Andy Murray in his semifinal draw (and a hot Tsonga in the quarterfinals); (d) 2013 French Open: when Murray was absent, Federer benefited from having Ferrer in his semifinal draw (but got the toughest quarterfinal opponent Tsonga) while Djokovic got Nadal in semifinal draw; (e) 2013 Wimbledon: Federer got the worst possible draw with Nadal in quarterfinal, Murray in semifinal and Djokovic in final.
The only three favorable semifinal draws Federer got in the last 5.75 seasons were all in one major the French Open: 2008 French Open, 2010 French Open, 2013 French Open. These past 6 French Opens gave Federer an equal chance (50%-50%) of getting a tougher or easier draw: Federer got 3 tougher and 3 easier semifinal draws. But he did not take advantage of the 3 easier draws to win the title because (a) he was in the middle of a slump each time and (b) clay is his weakest surface.
Actual semifinal opponents: From 2008 Australian Open to 2013 French Open there have been 22 completed slams. Federer had to actually play the highest seeded semifinal opponent in 11 (65%) of 17 semifinals he contested up to 2013 French Open (Roger did not contest 5 of 22 slam semifinals during this period as he lost 5 quarterfinals). Playing the highest seeded semifinal opponent is a disadvantage when Federer got into the finals.
Specfically, Federer actually played the following opponents in the 17 semifinals he reached (of the 22 completed slams):
- Djokovic in 9 semifinals (from the 16 semifinal draws with Djokovic)
- Murray in 1 semifinal (from 3 previous semifinal draws)
- Nadal in 1 semifinal (from 1 semifinal draw).
- Safin in 1 semifinal (, former No.1, two-time slam champion)
- Del Potro in 1 semifinal (grand slam champion)
- Roddick in 1 semifinal (former No.1, grand slam champion)
- Tsonga in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- Tommy Haas in 1 semifinal (former No. 2, four time slam semifinalist)
- Monfils in 1 semifinal (crowd favorite at French Open)
Of all Big Four Players, Nadal benefited most from easier semifinal draws (which have helped Nadal reach several finals since 2008 and he is in fresher shape in the finals).
Nadal got the easier semifinal draw in 17 of the 23 slams between 2008 Australian Open to 2013 French Open.
These were Nadal's semifinal seeded opponents in the draws between 2008 AO and 2013 FO: Ferrer (1), Davydenko (2), Del Porto (1), Soderling (1), Federer (1), Djokovic (3), Murray (10). [Nadal did get tougher draws in the last two slams upon his return to the tour. However, before that, the vast majority of his draws had the easier semifinal opponent.]
Nadal reached 15 semifinals of 22 slams during this period as he lost early in four slams (he contested 19 slams as he skipped 3 slams).
Nadal played his seeded semifinal opponent in only seven (46%) of 15 semifinals he contested: Federer once, Djokovic two times (Djoko failed to reach one semifinal), Murray 4 times (Murray failed to reach 5 semifinals, Nadal failed to reach 1 semifinal). Ferrer, Davydenko, Delpo, Soderling all failed to reach the semifinals, so Nadal did not have to face them (thus he actually played even lower-seeded opponents who took their place). In particular, Nadal actually played the No. 3 or higher seed in only 3 of the 15 semifinals he contested.
Specifically, Nadal actually played the following opponents in the 15 semifinals he reached (of the 22 completed slams):
- Rainer Schuettler in 1 semifinal
- Melzer in 1 semifinal
- Verdasco in 1 semifinal
- Youzhny in 1 semifinal
- Ferrer in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- del Potro in 1 semifinal (grand slam champion)
- Tsonga in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- Federer in 1 semifinal (No.3 Seed)
- Djokovic in 2 semifinals No 3 once, No. 1 seed once)
- Murray in 5 semifinals (No. 4 seed in four SF, No. 6 seed once)
In the vast majority of those slams, Federer has gotten the worst of the three possible semifinal opponents (which has been a dis-advantage in Federer getting to more finals during this period). On the other hand, Nadal has gotten the easier semifinal draw in the vast majority of these slams (which has been an advantage that helps Nadal get to more finals).
Federer's semifinal draws as well as actual semifinal matches had the tougher opponents much more than Nadal got. This made it harder for Roger to reach more finals as well as be in fresh shape in the finals (e.g., 2011 French Open: Federer stopped Djokovic's 43-game winning streak in the semifinal but then faced a fresh Nadal in the final).
Semifinal draws on paper: In 20 of these 23 slams since 2008 AO , Federer got the semifinal draw with the tougher semifinal opponent. These 20 draws were in every Australian Open (6), every Wimbledon (6), every US Open (5) and half of the French Open (6).
- Djokovic was the semifinal draw in 16 of those 23 draws (except 7 draws: 2008 FO, 2010 FO, 2012 AO, 2012 USO, 2013 AO, 2013 FO, 2013 Wimby)
- Murray in 4 semifinal draws (2010 FO, 2012 USO, 2013 AO, 2013 Wimby)
- Nadal in 1 semifinal draw (2012 AO; and this Wimby quarterfinal draw)
- Ferrer in 1 semifinal draw (2013 FO; Federer lost early)
- Davydenko in 1 semifinal draw (2008 FO; Russian lost early).
- Federer drew the fourth seed in only three draws: 2008 FO (Davydenko), 2010 FO (Murray), 2013 French Open (Ferrer)
In the vast majority of these 23 slams, Djokovic was a tougher and more dangerous threat than Murray. The Serb was more consistent in reaching the semifinals: from 2008 AO to 2013 FO, Djokovic reached 16 of 22 semifinals compared to Murray's 12 of 22 semifinals. Djokovic was also the more dangerous threat in the slams to Nadal/FedererDjokovic: since 2008 AO, Nadal's H2H against Murray was a dominant 11-5 but Nadal was closer 13-12 against Djokovic. Already in 2008, Djokovic had twice beaten Nadal and even took a set off Nadal on clay in 2008 Hamburg.]
In 4 of the last 5 slams, the 'Nadal factor' and 'Murray factor' went against or did not benefit Federer: (a) 2012 Wimbledon: when Nadal lost early, it was Murray who benefited since Federer already had Djokovic in his semifinal draw; (b) 2012 US Open: when Nadal was absent, Federer got Andy Murray in his semifinal draw (and a hot Berdych in the quarterfinals); (c) 2013 Australian Open: when Nadal was absent, Federer again got Andy Murray in his semifinal draw (and a hot Tsonga in the quarterfinals); (d) 2013 French Open: when Murray was absent, Federer benefited from having Ferrer in his semifinal draw (but got the toughest quarterfinal opponent Tsonga) while Djokovic got Nadal in semifinal draw; (e) 2013 Wimbledon: Federer got the worst possible draw with Nadal in quarterfinal, Murray in semifinal and Djokovic in final.
The only three favorable semifinal draws Federer got in the last 5.75 seasons were all in one major the French Open: 2008 French Open, 2010 French Open, 2013 French Open. These past 6 French Opens gave Federer an equal chance (50%-50%) of getting a tougher or easier draw: Federer got 3 tougher and 3 easier semifinal draws. But he did not take advantage of the 3 easier draws to win the title because (a) he was in the middle of a slump each time and (b) clay is his weakest surface.
Actual semifinal opponents: From 2008 Australian Open to 2013 French Open there have been 22 completed slams. Federer had to actually play the highest seeded semifinal opponent in 11 (65%) of 17 semifinals he contested up to 2013 French Open (Roger did not contest 5 of 22 slam semifinals during this period as he lost 5 quarterfinals). Playing the highest seeded semifinal opponent is a disadvantage when Federer got into the finals.
Specfically, Federer actually played the following opponents in the 17 semifinals he reached (of the 22 completed slams):
- Djokovic in 9 semifinals (from the 16 semifinal draws with Djokovic)
- Murray in 1 semifinal (from 3 previous semifinal draws)
- Nadal in 1 semifinal (from 1 semifinal draw).
- Safin in 1 semifinal (, former No.1, two-time slam champion)
- Del Potro in 1 semifinal (grand slam champion)
- Roddick in 1 semifinal (former No.1, grand slam champion)
- Tsonga in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- Tommy Haas in 1 semifinal (former No. 2, four time slam semifinalist)
- Monfils in 1 semifinal (crowd favorite at French Open)
Of all Big Four Players, Nadal benefited most from easier semifinal draws (which have helped Nadal reach several finals since 2008 and he is in fresher shape in the finals).
Nadal got the easier semifinal draw in 17 of the 23 slams between 2008 Australian Open to 2013 French Open.
These were Nadal's semifinal seeded opponents in the draws between 2008 AO and 2013 FO: Ferrer (1), Davydenko (2), Del Porto (1), Soderling (1), Federer (1), Djokovic (3), Murray (10). [Nadal did get tougher draws in the last two slams upon his return to the tour. However, before that, the vast majority of his draws had the easier semifinal opponent.]
Nadal reached 15 semifinals of 22 slams during this period as he lost early in four slams (he contested 19 slams as he skipped 3 slams).
Nadal played his seeded semifinal opponent in only seven (46%) of 15 semifinals he contested: Federer once, Djokovic two times (Djoko failed to reach one semifinal), Murray 4 times (Murray failed to reach 5 semifinals, Nadal failed to reach 1 semifinal). Ferrer, Davydenko, Delpo, Soderling all failed to reach the semifinals, so Nadal did not have to face them (thus he actually played even lower-seeded opponents who took their place). In particular, Nadal actually played the No. 3 or higher seed in only 3 of the 15 semifinals he contested.
Specifically, Nadal actually played the following opponents in the 15 semifinals he reached (of the 22 completed slams):
- Rainer Schuettler in 1 semifinal
- Melzer in 1 semifinal
- Verdasco in 1 semifinal
- Youzhny in 1 semifinal
- Ferrer in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- del Potro in 1 semifinal (grand slam champion)
- Tsonga in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- Federer in 1 semifinal (No.3 Seed)
- Djokovic in 2 semifinals No 3 once, No. 1 seed once)
- Murray in 5 semifinals (No. 4 seed in four SF, No. 6 seed once)
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