Federer's serve became worse in 2007 Federer decline started in 2007 with monocleusis virus undetected yet until 2008

10is, Sep 7, 2012

10isProfessional

Joined:

Jun 26, 2010

Messages:

1,450

Wrong. There is always doubt since using statistics to validate a hypothesis depends on the contextual framework within which you are attempting to interpret that data. For instance I completely disagree that players are altogether better retuners than they were 10 years, especially when you consider players like Hewitt, Nalbandian, Agassi etc and compare them against Nadal, Djokovic and Murray et al. Of course a statistical comparision would be invalid since the latter trio are still in their prime hence their numbers will of course be better than the former group at this juncture.

Anyhow, here are Federer's hardcourt serving statistics from the ATP Website:

2003:
59% 1st Serve
80% 1st Serve Points Won
60% 2nd Serve Points Won

68% Break Points Saved (out of 257)

642 Service Games Played

2004:
61% 1st Serve
78% 1st Serve Points Won
57% 2nd Serve Points Won

73% Break Points Saved (out of 169)

563 Service Games Played

2005:
63% 1st Serve
77% 1st Serve Points Won
60% 2nd Serve Points Won

71% Break Points Saved (out of 191)

645 Service Games Played

2006:
62% 1st Serve
77% 1st Serve Points Won
58% 2nd Serve Points Won

72% Break Points Saved (out of 246)
738 Service Games Played

2007:
63% 1st Serve
78% 1st Serve Points Won
61% 2nd Serve Points Won

64% Break Points Saved (out of 164) <------- b="">Decline Starts


628 Service Games Played

2008:
64% 1st Serve
78% 1st Serve Points Won
58% 2nd Serve Points Won

69% Break Points Saved (out of 181)

562 Service Games Played

2009:
63% 1st Serve
78% 1st Serve Points Won
56% 2nd Serve Points Won

68% Break Points Saved (out of 213)

623 Service Games Played

2010:
61% 1st Serve
79% 1st Serve Points Won
56% 2nd Serve Points Won

68% Break Points Saved (out of 221)

659 Service Games Played

2011:
63% 1st Serve
79% 1st Serve Points Won
57% 2nd Serve Points Won

63% Break Points Saved (out of 168 )

596 Service Games Played
-----------------

The BP saved % and 2nd serve points won % decrease on average in the post-2007 period. Also, there is a correlation that can be made between his season win %, his overall service points won % and the number of break points saved %.

Yes, the post 07 decline in his service game isn't altogether that prominent compared to the decline in his return game but it is there. Service return wise, between 03-07, he never went below 29% return games won, and averaged 30.2%. In 2008 thorugh 2011, the "postpeak" years, Fed never went "above" 28% return games won, and averaged 26.5%. That's a clear and significant decline

When comparing stats such as these, its important to look at "trends", not year-to-year blips in order for a hypothesis to have statistical validity. No one goes straight up or straight down uninterruptedly.     
http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/federer-serve.438714/